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Crisis política en Brasil: ¿Hay peligro de la izquierda local llegar al poder? PDF Imprimir E-mail
Escrito por Indicado en la materia   
Domingo, 26 de Abril de 2020 20:43

A imagem pode conter: uma ou mais pessoas e terno

Por Jorge Hernández Fonseca.- 

La respuesta a la pregunta sobre el peligro de la izquierda en las próximas elecciones queda respondida, no hay peligro. La izquierda en Brasil es fuerte, pero no será gobierno si no se alía con algún otro partido de centro, o de derechas, cosa muy poco probable en el futuro inmediato. Habría un interesante embate Bolsonaro/Izquierda/Moro, pero falta bastante como para tan temprano pronosticar ganador.


Crisis política en Brasil: ¿Hay peligro de la izquierda local llegar al poder?

Jorge Hernández Fonseca

26 de Abril de 2010

La salida del Ministro de Justicia Sergio Moro del gobierno de Jair Bolsonaro en Brasil, seguido de un enfrentamiento de acusaciones cruzadas, se ha constituido en una verdadera crisis política para la cúpula gobernante del gigante sudamericano. Esto, porque Moro es una unanimidad en el país, en lo que ha rectitud, honestidad y ética respecta, cualidades que precisamente le dieron la victoria a Bolsonaro en las elecciones contra la izquierda local.

La preferencia política del actual electorado brasileño se divide en tres partes más o menos similares. Una tercera parte apoya la izquierda, que no es sólo el PT de Lula da Silva. La segunda tercera parte apoya a Jair Bolsonaro, presidente actual, y la última tercera parte, no menos importante, decide su apoyo en función de resultados, prestigios y aspectos regionales.

El actual gobierno de Bolsonaro ha tropezado en Brasil con costumbres políticas poco ortodoxas. Bolsonaro es un hombre honesto, que carece de un partido; fue electo en una agrupación política pequeña, en la cual sólo militó pocos meses antes de su elección y rápidamente, una vez en el poder, se desentendió con sus dirigentes y hoy no milita en ninguna agrupación partidaria. Eso lo debilita en el Parlamento, la prensa y el público en general. Las gestiones ante el Congreso, para aprobar leyes, se ven dificultadas por este importante detalle.

La izquierda brasileña derrotada, por su parte, continúa siendo poderosa y ha movido sus hilos inteligentemente para hacer una oposición contra todo y contra todos. Sin embargo, hay que decir que la izquierda de Lula da Silva sólo fue gobierno durante 13 años, porque hizo alianza con el mayor partido político brasileño, el Movimiento Democrático Brasileño, MDB, de centro derecha, sin lo cual jamás hubiera conseguido ganar ninguna elección presidencial en Brasil.

Adicionalmente, al desentenderse Sergio Moro con Jair Bolsonaro --ambos compartiendo ideologías políticas similares-- (nada que ver con las izquierdas) y además, siendo Moro una unanimidad en Brasil, acaba de nacer un fuerte aspirante a la presidencia del país, cosa que desde luego ya preocupa a la izquierda local, porque sería un candidato que correría al cargo sin los sin sabores y tropezones que ya Bolsonaro ha tenido que amargar en su gobierno.

De manera que, la respuesta a la pregunta sobre el peligro de la izquierda en las próximas elecciones queda respondida. La izquierda en Brasil es fuerte, pero no será gobierno si no se alía con algún otro partido de centro, o de derechas, cosa muy poco probable en el futuro inmediato. Habría un interesante embate Bolsonaro/Izquierda/Moro, pero falta mucho tiempo como para tan temprano pronosticar ganador. En Brasil hay dos turnos electorales, si ningún candidato obtiene mayoría en el primer embate, es obligado a alianzas para el segundo turno.

Bolsonaro tiene dos años y medio más de gobierno. Ahora hay el peligro de un impeachment, aunque en el Congreso no hay mucho ambiente al respecto. Sin embargo, Bolsonaro tiene un vicepresidente, el general Mourón, de ideología similar al presidente, por lo cual el peligro de un cambio de gobierno por impeachment no implica un cambio de ideología del gobierno en Brasil.

Artículos de este autor pueden ser encontrados en http://www.cubalibredigital.com

Última actualización el Martes, 05 de Mayo de 2020 00:59
 

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