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A direita silenciosa e outras cinco possíveis surpresas nas eleições na Espanha, segundo as pesquisas PDF Imprimir E-mail
Escrito por Indicado en la materia   
Domingo, 28 de Abril de 2019 12:47

Essas eleições gerais na Espanha são infernais para se fazer previsões. É o que dizem os dados das pesquisas: um punhado de votos pode abrir alternativas tanta à esquerda como à direita.

elecciones generales

Graças às pesquisas sabemos algumas coisas com certa segurança, como que o PSOE é o favorito após muitos anos e que um partido de direita radical entrará com força no Parlamento. Mas não podemos esperar que as pesquisas sejam precisas como um laser e respondam incógnitas que dependem do voto de 2% a 3% dos espanhóis. São incapazes, por exemplo, de dizer taxativamente se a terceira colocação será do Cidadãos, Vox ou Unidos Podemos. O instrumento não é tão preciso para isso.

 

 

Analisei 25 eleições na Espanha desde os anos oitenta para ter uma medida de quanto as pesquisas se desviam. Em média, o erro é de dois pontos por partido, mas na maioria das vezes se desviaram mais de três pontos com pelo menos um partido (como ocorreu na Andaluzia em dezembro e nas eleições gerais de 2015 e 2016, sem precisar ir mais longe). Esses erros, perfeitamente previsíveis, tornam imprevisível o resultado deste domingo.

Para demonstrar, na sequência elaboro seis possíveis surpresas e analiso quais seriam suas consequências em número de cadeiras. As cinco surpresas estão ordenadas com um critério subjetivo: as que parecem mais prováveis vêm na frente.

1. O Vox tem eleitores ocultos. A surpresa mais provável é um resultado melhor do Vox. As últimas pesquisas o colocaram em quinto, mas próximo da terceira colocação. Nosso modelo de previsão dava a eles uma chance em seis para ficar em terceiro, e as apostas e alguns mercados de previsão já o colocam aí. Outros sinais, como os atos de campanha e o barulho nas redes, mesmo não sendo determinantes, também são favoráveis ao Vox.

O argumento para explicar essa surpresa é que existe voto oculto. Há eleitores do Vox que poderíamos chamar de “escandalosos”, mas também podem existir outros reticentes a revelar seu voto quando são entrevistados. Esse fenômeno acontece menos vezes do que se anuncia – não ocorreu com Marine Le Pen e Donald Trump, por exemplo –, mas existe. Além disso, na Andaluzia existiram indícios de voto oculto: ainda que 11% dos eleitores tenham votado no Vox, na pesquisa pós-eleitoral do CIS só apareceram 7%.

Mas o que aconteceria nesse cenário? Simulei os resultados de cadeiras assumindo que o Vox subiria para 14% ou 15%, tirando votos principalmente do PP e do Cidadãos. O partido direitista certamente seria terceiro, mas as maiorias mudariam pouco. A direita estaria um pouco mais próxima das 176 cadeiras, mas não seria fácil chegar a esse número.

2. A direita sobe. Outra possível surpresa é que se repita o que aconteceu na Andaluzia e que a surpresa seja um voto à direita e silencioso. Parte da esquerda, à época, se absteve sem ter dado sinais disso. A tese mais aceita é que agora a situação é diferente, porque a questão catalã perdeu atenção e o Vox devolveu o protagonismo ao eixo esquerda – direita. Mas podemos estar enganados e os eleitores podem continuar votando à direita.

Elaborei um cenário em que o PP (21% de votos), o Cidadãos (16%) e o Vox (12%) sobem. Isso colocaria a direita acima da maioria, ainda que sem assegurá-la. São cenários como esse que fazem com que, segundo nosso modelo preferido, a direita tenha uma chance em 10 de obter maioria e governar. Outros prognósticos elevam suas opções para 20% de probabilidade.

3. O Podemos ressurge. Nessa semana ganhou força a hipótese da ressurreição do Unidos Podemos. O argumento principal é que Iglesias saiu fortalecido dos debates, mas também poderia estar recuperando indecisos com o esclarecimento de sua fronteira com o Compromís e o En Marea.

Nesse cenário assumo que o Podemos sobe para 16% ou 17% de votos, deixando o PSOE em 27% e tirando alguns décimos dos outros. A esquerda melhoraria seu resultado em votos, mas não está claro que isso se traduza em mais cadeiras – de acordo com meus cálculos, para cada cadeira obtida pelo Podemos, o PSOE perde o mesmo ou um pouco mais –. O que se reduz com a subida do Podemos são as opções de um pacto entre o PSOE e o Cidadãos.

4. Continuam as tendências de campanha. Esse cenário perdeu força desde segunda-feira, mas era uma hipótese lógica por ser parcimoniosa. Consiste em assumir que o PSOE continuaria subindo até 31% e que o Cidadãos baixaria de 14%.

Nesse caso, a esquerda melhoraria suas opções de se unir ao PNV, porque o PSOE teria por volta de 140 cadeiras e tiraria proveito do viés majoritário do sistema eleitoral. Além disso, se o Cidadãos se mantiver acima de 12% ou 13%, os dois partidos poderiam se unir.

5. O PP resiste novamente. Outra possibilidade é que o PP nos surpreenda, como aconteceu em 2015 e 2016, quando superou as pesquisas em um e três pontos. Simulei um cenário desse tipo, em que o PP teria 23% dos votos, reduzindo o Cidadãos (13%) e o Vox (10%). A questão principal é que um resultado assim não beneficia a soma da direita. O PP continuaria em segundo em muitas províncias e tanto o Vox como o Cidadãos teriam uma relação pior entre votos recebidos e cadeiras conquistadas. Aumentariam as opções para um bloqueio. A união do PSOE e do Cidadãos seria mais improvável e a esquerda teria mais dificuldades para conquistar 176 cadeiras, até mesmo contando com o PNV.

6. A surpresa de que não ocorram surpresas. A última possibilidade é que as pesquisas acertem totalmente o resultado de domingo. Nesse caso, a esquerda e a direita não teriam maioria fácil e as melhores opções seriam para Pedro Sánchez. O socialista teria a via de moção – contando com forças independentistas –, mas o resultado em algumas províncias poderia abrir duas outras alternativas: um pacto com o Cidadãos e um acordo com a esquerda que só precisaria agregar o PNV.

Paradoxalmente, é pouco provável que o resultado eleitoral coincida exatamente com os prognósticos. As pesquisas são a melhor previsão para cada partido separadamente, mas não é frequente acertarem com todos. Desde 1986 ocorreram 10 eleições gerais e somente em duas ocasiões a média de pesquisas acertou com todos os grandes partidos sem se desviar dos pontos com nenhum. A última vez foi em 2008, ainda em tempos de bipartidarismo.

É útil pensar nas surpresas de uma Copa do Mundo. Os melhores de cada grupo são os favoritos para as partidas eliminatórias, mas sabemos que sempre fica um pelo caminho. Acontece algo parecido com as eleições. É fácil acertar dizendo que “ocorrerão surpresas”, o difícil é acertar quais serão

Metodologia. Nosso cálculo de cadeiras vem de um processo em três passos: 1) partimos da média de pesquisas a nível nacional; 2) estimamos o voto em cada circunscrição a partir dessa média; e 3) calculamos as cadeiras de acordo com o método D’Hondt. Você pode ler os detalhes sobre a metodologia aqui.

EL PAIS; ESPANHA

Última actualización el Martes, 30 de Abril de 2019 00:03
 

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